The NWLLA Talk

Peter Boyle from NWLLA came up with the excellent idea of inviting industry types to Limavady to speak to the current intake of IT folk. I have to admit to start off with I was little skeptical because I've done this sort of thing before with mixed response.

What I thought was going to be 30 minutes ended up being just under 2 1/2 hours. We covered the harsh reality that it's pretty crap out there as Northern Ireland goes, especially the North West. On a positive note we went through the emerging technologies to keep an eye on over the next few years. Moving aside from actually getting a job we then talked about starting up on your own, that's where it got real interesting. Ideas were flowing I went around the room and asked everyone to share what they really wanted to do, plus we showed the power of the network (in reference to Open Coffee Coleraine/Derry/Limavady/Mid Ulster). With most of the ideas I could put them in touch with two or three people who might be able to help in one way or another.

Plus it was good practise for me as it's been a while since I spoke in front of anybody, so it was a good trial run before I speak at Barcamp Derry.

Article: Invite-only discount sales are the hottest ticket in town

My second article for the Belfast Telegraph. You can read it here.

People ask me why I rent.

Many folk ask why I don't own a property and pay rent (or as some call it to me, dead money) on a house.

I'm paying for a service: for a landlord to supply and maintain a property for a given fee a week/month.  My earnings (I'm currently unemployed due to this wonder recovery recession) pay for that service for which I'm normally happy.  If not happy then, depending on the circumstances, the landlord has to put it right.

I looked into mortgages years ago but the mere fact of paying three, perhaps four times, the amount of money back to the bank full well knowing at any time they could recall the debt, well it begs belief why anyone would do it.  Between 2001 and 2004 I was watching house prices going skywards with no sign of stopping.  That sinking feeling when I turned to my wife and said, "I think we've missed the boat".  

The one piece of information that stuck in my head was from an old Open University programme describing how house prices work on average 15 year cycle from bottoming out to peak.  If you say that they last bottoming out was in 1991 then by 2005/6 you'd expect to see something happening.  At the start of 2008 I had friends merrily gloating under the illusion that "you never lose on property".  How wrong they were.  I had to watch as they lost jobs, paniced and desperately tried to sell up as prices and demand took a sharp nosedive.

I'm not planning on getting a "dead pledge" anytime soon.  And why?  Well the rental rates work in my favour.

If I want to buy a house right now for say, £175,000 then my monthly repayment over 25 years would be (at 5% as a baseline) £1034.72 a month.  Now the interest rates are rock bottom but the bank rates aren't, so any rise (and it will happen eventually this feel good on the interest rates can't last forever - we need to get real).  Nice rule of thumb is to work out the worse case senario, if the interest rate ever hit 12%, which is possible as it's happened before, could you afford £1859.37 (that doesn't include the insurances you have to take out either so you could be hitting nearer £2000 a month).  An average rent is well below the 5% baseline figure right now.

The rough guide is that a mortgage should take no more than 33% of your monthly income.  So at worst case are you earning £6000 a month if the worse case happened?  For some reason this modicum of sense totally escaped people and the banks over the years.  Asset bound wealth is no substitute for cash in hand.  Assets can create avenues to generate cash in form or loans or recouped money from rent.  If the demand falls though so does your income from the asset.

For all the people, marketers, media, PR who are spinning out that the recession is over.... it's utter rubbish in my eyes.  On the street there are people panicing and no longer over the value of their house, it's now a case of not losing their job so they can continue to pay for it.

From Unemployment to Startup (if you are west of The Bann)

A quick reality check, the job situation is crap out there.  Regardless of the all the headlines stating the recession is over, it's crap out there.  West of the Bann, it's really bad with Derry, Limavady and Strabane chalking up the higher end of the unemployment figures.  Also, reality check number two is that Project Kelvin will not create the jobs that people will expect.

So while the unemployment figures just keep climbing it doesn't give much heart to try something.  On the other hand it's a good time to have an entrepreneurial heart and give something a bash.  The number of micro sized (five employees or less) is certainly on the rise.

Right, first of all the bad news.  If you are signing on there's a good chance that money is tight and you're watching every penny.  So startup funds are well short, given the other fact that the Start A Business Programme now doesn't give money on completion of the programme (which has whittled down from £1500, to £750, to £400, to £250 to nothing) it's now more difficult to startup from scratch.  While InvestNI go hunting for export opportunities in Northern Ireland companies (and anything else that makes good press releases) the rest of us are entitled to very little.

Yes the SABP does run but they are just seminars, that's it.  No money now.  They are handy, don't get me wrong, though the main reason for doing this route was for the cash at the end to give a helping hand to setup, though the amount was piddly by any stretch of the imagination.  If you really need money then it's friends, family and savings (if such a thing still exists).

So, what for the unemployed with a dream.... well don't let any of that stop you.  In Branson terms, screw it, let's do it.  The reason that software startups are a good one is that the cost to market is low.  If you are stuck for ideas there are plenty around (you can go have a look at http://www.oneforten.info if you are really stuck and desperate).

From there it's networking and tons of it.  Open Coffee's are a good place to start and they are all over the place... Derry, Limavady, Coleraine and Mid Ulster if you are west of that river and then Belfast, Newry and Lisburn if you are east of it.  Attend Refresh and all the other uber cool nights that go on in the province.  There's a sacrifice of your time but you'll meet you who need to meet at those events.  Plus they are the nicest bunch you'll come across.

For the totally adventurous among you, you can have a look at the Propel Programme run by XCel Partners for InvestNI.  Applications are online and will give the final 30 an eight week seminar programme from which the final 15 are 50% salary paid for the next 10 months.  I did talk to Diane at XCel about the salary band for the unemployed but still haven't heard anything back at the time I'm writing this.  Propel is interesting in terms of it's goals of developing networking and being able to stand in front of VC's.  The bit that did stick in me is that the initial seminars are in Belfast and I've not seen mention of any travelling expenses being paid to the unemployed if they are accepted on to the last 30.  All routes may lead to Belfast but there are a number of companies that reside outside of Belfast.

These are the times that Twitter is useful to put you in contact with people who know the funding routes.  There's a load of groups on Facebook as well.  Incubators in the North West are few and far between, there is Noribic in Derry but I never have any idea what they are doing as their website doesn't really work properly.  The blog's great but you have to find it and it doesn't link from the front page (in other words useless).  It's currently under construction which means all my whinging may have paid off.  

The North West is desperate for a digital content high point, something that I'm hoping Barcamp Derry will do.  So if you are in the area and are doing something startup (even if it's on the paper planning stages) then it would be good to see you, talk to you and offer some encouragement along the way.  I know from bitter experience of the last five years living in the North West it can be a lonely existence in startup world.  From doing more talking through networking I'm doing more talking.... watch out for DevDays in 2010.